The Department of Labour has a new initiative called Workforce 2020. Its purpose is to stimulate debate on future trends affecting the labour market, by thinking what the labour market might look like in 12 years. From 2008, looking out to 2020 seems a long way away. But to train some professionals, such as scientists, can take easily that long.
Their first publication is Forces for Change - an initial scan of the forces driving the future of the labour market.
“In the next 10 to 15 years, the labour market in New Zealand will be shaped by a range of forces for change. These will include: big shifts in population size and composition; continued globalisation characterised by tectonic shifts in economic power and the large-scale movement of work and workers internationally; fundamental changes in the nature of work because of new technology and innovation that will drive new skills requirements; and profound environmental and resource pressures that will affect the type of jobs we have and the way we work.”
It’s worth reading the whole publication, but of particular interest to me, was their understanding of “Technology and changing skill requirements” on the labour market. The two dimensions of this force are:
- Accelerating pace of technological change and innovation and the impact on industries and occupations
- Evolving nature of work, including variety of employment arrangements
It’s to the benefit of all of us to contribute to the debate, because the Department of Labour will draw on this developing understanding to inform policy responses for current and additional approaches. So in that spirit, here’s a couple of my thoughts on the forces:
1. Accelerating pace of technological change
“These developments have enhanced the ability of individuals to take advantage of computer technology while also aiding networking within and across firms and between customers, producers and service providers.”
I think this is true, but I think technology change needs to be linked to productivity potential somehow.
As an analogy, today you’re using a hammer and nail; tomorrow I give you a screwdriver and screw. Many companies complain that they’ve spent more money on this new technology but they’re actually less productive, because it’s now really hard hammering that grooved metal fastener into the wood.
The worst part is that the younger employees often say, “hey we’re actually meant to be screwing it into the wood” but are told “that’s not part of our existing policy/process”, and “we haven’t quantified the risk in this new technique, so keep on hammering”.
The technology has the potential for increased productivity, but you need the organisational changes to occur as well.
2. Evolving Nature of Work
“Yet to a large extent, current policy settings governing work, the workforce and the workplace assume a traditional employment relationship, characterised as “full-time jobs of indefinite duration at a facility owned or rented by the employer”.”
I think they’ve hit the nail on the head with this one. If you’re a literate knowledge worker, then you’ll already be pushing for more flexibility with your work. Technology can free you to work from home or on the move. Typically you don’t need to be working 9-5, 5 days a week, in the cubicle anymore.
Their analysis has wider implications though. If it’s harder to get experienced service staff, then who’s going to fix the photocopier? Perhaps we’ll see just-in-time training, the service technician will view a two-minute video clip showing how to service the machine, while on your premises. And if service companies go that far, then perhaps we’ll do it ourselves, because there won’t be a service technician.
But enough from me…
What’s your interpretation of these forces?
Is there something major that has been overlooked?
I look forward to your comments.
4 Comments
“Yet to a large extent, current policy settings governing work, the workforce and the workplace assume a traditional employment relationship, characterised as “full-time jobs of indefinite duration at a facility owned or rented by the employer”.”
Well yes. But I’d go a stage further. Many of those Kiwi knowledge workers beavering away in our cities and small towns will be, in effect, sub-contractors. Moreover, they will be as likely to contract to New Zealand businesses as to overseas companies.
I agree, that we’ll probably see more contractors. The flip side is potentially greater insecurity and uncertainty for a worker in that type of environment.
We don’t want to lose the benefits of a traditional Kiwi employment relationship, such as superannuation, sick leave, childcare arrangements and a safe and healthy workplace. Otherwise we might all contract virtually to the French with 37 days annual leave pa.
There there’s the other management dilemma about using contractors - how do you retain and use the knowledge generated by contractors when they leave.
My naval gazing:
1. If I’m still using a keyboard and mouse in 2020, I think I will be grossly disappointed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7174333.stm). I am really hoping someone like Nintendo will build collaborative wordprocessing/document creation software (this will help with obesity).
2. As teleworking becomes the norm, we will relise how rediculous measuring either “number of hours worked” or “productivity” (which is a ratio of output to hours worked) are. We will realise the only thing that matters is outputs (who cares if it takes you 2 hours a day or 20). I care not for how warm your seat is, especially if it is your seat at your house.
3. As teleworking and flexible working hours become the norm, the idea of “the organisation” might dissolve/or at least become very confusing (think Wikipedia). Organisations are simply a group of individuals, but in the future their relationship will seldom be monogomous. Variety is the spice of live, and if I’m working from home, when I want, why should I be limited to one employer (or even employers in my own country)?
Ah Mike.
I didn’t say they’d WANT to be contractors.
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